Why Truckload Capacity Is Tightening in 2026

Industry Insights

5 min read

Non-domiciled CDL limits, English proficiency enforcement and tighter compliance are affecting driver availability. What shippers should know.

Why Truckload Capacity Is Tightening in 2026

Data and regulatory status current as of October 7, 2026. Several of the developments discussed below remain subject to litigation or additional rulemaking.

If your tender acceptance has fallen and your truckload rates have risen in 2026, you have probably heard that capacity is getting tighter.

But freight demand alone does not explain what is happening.

Freight volumes were relatively soft for much of the year, while several developments on the supply side have affected driver availability, carrier economics and the amount of capacity brokers and shippers can reliably access.

Federal licensing rules, English-language proficiency enforcement, ELD and training-provider actions, carrier exits and tighter carrier vetting are all contributing to a market that looks different from a typical demand-driven freight cycle.

Here is what is happening and what it may mean for shippers.

The short version

Several developments are putting pressure on available truckload capacity:

1. New limits on who can qualify for a non-domiciled CDL.

2. Stronger enforcement of existing English-language proficiency requirements.

3. Increased enforcement involving ELD devices and driver training providers.

4. Tighter carrier vetting by some brokers, particularly as liability and fraud concerns receive more attention.

At the same time, operating costs remain difficult for carriers.

ATRI's 2026 Operational Costs of Trucking report put average non-fuel operating costs for 2025 at

Diesel prices also reached record levels in September 2026.

Together, these factors do not necessarily mean that the total number of trucks in the market is falling everywhere. But they can reduce qualified driver availability, push marginal carriers out of the market and make reliable capacity harder to secure on certain lanes.

1. The non-domiciled CDL rule

A non-domiciled CDL is a commercial driver's license issued by a U.S. state to an eligible driver who does not have permanent domicile in that state or, in some cases, in the United States.

FMCSA first addressed the issue through an interim rule in September 2025. That rule was stayed by the D.C. Circuit later that year.

The agency subsequently published a final rule on February 13, 2026, with an effective date of March 16, 2026.

Under the final rule, eligibility for non-domiciled CDLs is generally limited to individuals holding H-2A, H-2B or E-2 nonimmigrant status.

Employment authorization documents are no longer accepted by themselves as a basis for eligibility, licenses generally cannot exceed one year, and renewals must be completed in person.

FMCSA has estimated that approximately 194,000 current non-domiciled CDL holders could lose renewal eligibility over roughly five years.

That distinction is important.

The rule does not remove all affected drivers from the road at once. Many existing credential holders may continue operating until their current licenses expire. The effect therefore builds gradually as licenses come up for renewal.

Separately, FMCSA has challenged state-issued licenses that the agency says were issued improperly.

In California, for example, FMCSA withheld roughly

The final rule itself also remains subject to litigation.

A divided D.C. Circuit panel declined to pause the rule in May 2026, and the court heard oral arguments on the merits on September 15.

As of October 7, a final decision had not been reported.

That means the regulatory picture could still change.

2. English-language proficiency is receiving stronger enforcement

The English-language requirement for commercial drivers is not new.

Under 49 CFR 391.11(b)(2), commercial drivers must be able to read and speak English well enough to communicate with the public, understand highway signs and signals, respond to official questions and complete required reports and records.

What changed is the enforcement environment.

The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance made noncompliance with the English-language proficiency requirement an out-of-service violation effective June 25, 2025.

Updated out-of-service criteria took effect on April 1, 2026.

Congress also directed FMCSA to incorporate this treatment into federal regulations.

FMCSA published a proposed rule on August 10, 2026. As of October 7, that proposal had not yet become a final rule.

Operationally, the issue matters because a driver who fails the applicable English-proficiency assessment during a roadside inspection may be placed out of service.

For a carrier, that can create an immediate operational disruption.

For a shipper, it can potentially mean a delayed or interrupted load.

For carriers, it also means English-language proficiency needs to be treated as an active driver-qualification issue rather than simply an administrative requirement.

3. ELD and training-provider enforcement

FMCSA has also taken enforcement action involving electronic logging devices and commercial-driver training providers.

On February 12, 2026, FMCSA removed nine devices from its list of registered ELDs.

Carriers using those devices were given until April 14 to replace them with compliant systems.

Separately, in December 2025, FMCSA removed nearly 3,000 providers from its Training Provider Registry and placed approximately 4,500 additional providers on notice over potential compliance issues.

These actions are different from the CDL eligibility rule because they do not necessarily remove drivers from the market permanently.

They can, however, create additional compliance costs and temporary disruption for carriers and prospective drivers.

Their direct effect on nationwide truckload capacity is difficult to isolate, but they form part of a broader enforcement environment that is placing greater emphasis on driver and carrier compliance.

4. Carrier vetting is becoming more important

Another change affects the amount of capacity that brokers and their customers can actually access.

In May 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II that the Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act's safety exception allowed the negligent-selection claim at issue against a freight broker to proceed under state law.

The decision does not mean brokers are automatically liable whenever a carrier is involved in an accident.

It does, however, add to the legal and risk-management considerations surrounding carrier selection.

At the same time, cargo theft, fraud, identity theft and insurance concerns have already pushed many brokers toward stricter carrier vetting.

One major carrier's brokerage operation reported in September that its approved carrier network had fallen from roughly 60,000 carriers at its peak to approximately 14,000.

That does not mean the remaining trucks disappeared from the freight market.

Instead, it means those trucks may no longer be available through that particular broker's approved network.

This distinction matters for shippers.

Total market capacity and the amount of capacity a particular broker can safely and confidently access are not necessarily the same thing.

What the market data is showing

Several indicators point to a tighter truckload market in 2026:

• FreightWaves analysis of FMCSA data showed net changes in operating authorities remaining deeply negative through at least April 2026.

• FreightWaves reported national truckload tender rejections above 16% in June, compared with roughly 4% in June 2023.

By late September, national rejections were around 14%, with reefer close to 20% and flatbed around 19%.

• ACT Research reported July dry-van spot rates excluding fuel up approximately 47% year over year, while aggregate contract rates were up around 17%.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index increased 11.3% year over year in August, marking its twentieth consecutive month of year-over-year gains.

• ACT's Driver Availability Index fell to a five-year low of 30.4 in April and remained well below its neutral reading of 50 through the summer.

• FTR reported Class 8 truck orders through August up 111% year over year, partly reflecting purchasing ahead of expected 2027 emissions-related equipment changes.

The last point illustrates why truck capacity cannot be measured simply by counting equipment.

Fleets may be able to add tractors more quickly than they can add qualified drivers.

How long could tighter conditions last?

There is no precise answer.

The current market is different from freight cycles driven primarily by sudden demand growth.

In 2018 and 2021, unusually strong freight demand played a major role in capacity tightening.

In 2026, some of the pressure is coming from the supply side.

Driver availability, regulatory requirements, carrier economics and carrier qualification are all part of the picture.

FMCSA's own estimate suggests that the effect of the non-domiciled CDL rule will develop gradually over several years as existing licenses expire.

There are also forces working in the opposite direction.

ACT has reported some improvement in driver availability since the spring low.

Higher driver compensation, improved carrier economics, additional equipment and changes resulting from ongoing litigation could also affect the market.

The most reasonable approach for shippers is therefore not to assume that tight capacity is permanent.

But it is also risky to assume that the market will quickly return to the extremely loose conditions seen earlier in the freight downturn.

Planning for continued volatility and tighter conditions into 2027 is reasonable.

What shippers can do

Reward reliability, not only the lowest rate

The cheapest carrier on a lane is not always the carrier that will continue accepting freight when the market tightens.

Carriers with stable drivers, reliable equipment and good service may cost more.

Giving strong carriers consistent volume can make your freight more attractive and reduce your exposure when spot-market capacity becomes harder to secure.

Build more stability into important lanes

Dedicated capacity, recurring commitments and drop-trailer programs can reduce dependence on the one-way spot market.

They can also improve carrier productivity by reducing dwell and uncertainty.

For critical lanes, that stability can be worth more than consistently chasing the lowest available rate.

Ask brokers how they vet and monitor carriers

Shippers should understand how their brokerage partners evaluate motor carriers.

A broker should be able to explain the processes it uses to review operating authority, insurance, safety information and other relevant compliance signals.

It is also worth asking how the broker identifies meaningful changes after a carrier has already been approved.

Carrier monitoring is increasingly important in a market affected by fraud, insurance changes and evolving compliance requirements.

Look at your own facilities

Carrier relationships are not determined only by rates.

Dwell time, appointment flexibility, loading efficiency and communication all affect whether carriers want to continue serving a facility.

When capacity becomes tighter, freight from efficient facilities is generally easier to cover than freight that regularly keeps drivers waiting.

Watch your lanes, not only national averages

Truckload capacity is not a single national market.

Conditions can vary significantly by region, lane, equipment type and season.

A national tender-rejection index can show the direction of the market, but lane-level acceptance, service failures and spot-rate movement will tell you more about the freight you actually need to move.

Compliance areas carriers are reviewing

Motor carriers are paying increasing attention to several driver and equipment compliance areas:

• Driver license classifications, endorsements and expiration dates.

• Driver qualification documentation.

• English-language proficiency and roadside-inspection expectations.

• ELD devices and whether they remain on FMCSA's registered list.

• Inspection and out-of-service history.

Out-of-service events can affect operations immediately and may also influence insurance, shipper relationships and broker qualification decisions.

Brokers and agents may separately review carrier operating authority, insurance, safety information and other relevant qualification signals when deciding which motor carriers to use.

What this means for 2027 planning

Truckload capacity in 2026 is not simply a story about freight demand.

The number of qualified drivers matters.

Carrier profitability matters.

Regulatory enforcement matters.

Carrier vetting matters.

And the amount of capacity available to a specific shipper can differ significantly from the theoretical number of trucks operating in the market.

For transportation teams preparing 2027 budgets and freight strategies, that means relying exclusively on national forecasts may not be enough.

Monitor tender acceptance and spot exposure by lane.

Know which carriers consistently support your freight.

Understand how your brokers qualify and monitor their networks.

And identify the lanes where a sudden reduction in available capacity would create the greatest operational risk.

The goal is not to predict exactly where the freight market will be six or twelve months from now.

It is to be prepared if the capacity available to your business becomes harder or more expensive to secure.

Related reading

• Freight Market Outlook: Q4 2026 and How to Plan for 2027

• Freight Broker Vetting: How Carrier Qualification Works

Sources

• Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, Restoring Integrity to the Issuance of Non-Domiciled Commercial Drivers Licenses, Final Rule, February 13, 2026

• Holland & Knight, summary of the non-domiciled CDL final rule, February 2026

• D.C.

Circuit and related legal reporting concerning litigation over the non-domiciled CDL rule

• Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance, English Language Proficiency Out-of-Service Criteria

• Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, English Language Proficiency; Out-of-Service Criteria, Proposed Rule, August 2026

• Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, removal of nine ELDs from the registered-device list, February 2026

• Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, Training Provider Registry enforcement actions, December 2025

• Supreme Court of the United States, Montgomery v.

Caribe Transport II, LLC, May 2026

• FreightWaves market reporting, June through September 2026

• ACT Research, For-Hire Trucking Index and driver availability reporting

• Cass Freight Index, August 2026

• FTR Class 8 order reporting, September 2026

• American Transportation Research Institute, An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking: 2026 Update

This article provides general information about regulatory and market developments and is not legal advice. Regulatory requirements, enforcement policies and litigation may change. Consult qualified counsel regarding specific legal or compliance obligations.